research

My research agenda develops clean, testable theoretical frameworks—centered on incentives, information frictions, and selection—to clarify mechanisms before tracing their empirical implications. Empirically, I work with reproducible, end-to-end pipelines that often combine web scraping and NLP with geocoding and panel construction. My workflow typically relies on Python (e.g., pandas, BeautifulSoup, spaCy, GeoPandas), Stata (e.g., reghdfe/hdfe, frames, rdrobust, event-study routines, esttab), and spatial tools such as QGIS (and, when appropriate, R). The items collected below provide abstracts and links to papers and slides, together with keywords and JEL codes.

Farina E., Rosso M., Dansero L., et al. (2023). Short-term effect of colorectal cancer on income. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 77:196–201.
Abstract
Introduction The ability to return to work after a cancer diagnosis is a key aspect of cancer survivorship and quality of life. Studies have reported a significant risk of income loss for cancer survivors; however, there is limited evidence of the Italian context.
Methods The Work Histories Italian Panel (WHIP)-Salute database was used to select a cohort of incident cases of colorectal cancer (CRC) among workers in the private sector, based on hospital discharges. A propensity score matching was used to find a balanced control group for several confounders. Ordinary least square and logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of a CRC diagnosis on annual income and the probability of switching from a full-time contract to a part-time one considering 3 years after the diagnosis.
Results Overall, we identified 925 CRC incident cases from 2006 until 2012. Our results confirm a statistically significant reduction in survivors’ income compared with controls. This reduction was greater in the first year and then tend to decrease, with an average income loss over 3 years of about €12 000. Stratified analyses by sex and position confirmed the overall trend while indicating a strong effect modification. Regarding the switching from full-time to part-time employment, the results were never significant.
Conclusion Income loss does not seem to be related to an increase in part-time contracts, but rather to survivors’ reduced work capacity following the invasive treatments. Further research is needed to investigate the complex dynamics behind this association.
Crime Perception and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Individual Data
joint with Giovanni Prarolo
This paper examines how exposure to geolocated crime-related news affects individual voting behavior in Italian elections. Using a panel of non-relocating voters observed across multiple election rounds, we exploit within-individual variation in exposure to nearby crime news during the pre-election month, via individual and district-time fixed effects. Aggregate exposure yields weak, unstable effects Disaggregating by offender nationality reveals systematic patterns: immigrant-attributed crime news reduces support for parties with ambiguous immigration stances (e.g., Five Star Movement) and increases support for clear “law-and-order” parties, while Italian-attributed crime has negligible effects. Effects are stronger among high-skilled voters shifting from M5S and low-skilled voters abandoning Lega. In local elections, Italian crime punishes incumbents, while immigrant crime increases abstention. These asymmetric responses—absent in aggregate measures—indicate that crime salience operates through identity framing rather than general security concerns. The findings highlight how media attribution shapes electoral accountability.
crime; elections; immigration; news media; individual voting behavior.
D72; K42; J15; D83; L82.
The Tipping Point of Temptation: Selection, Integrity, and Public Service Quality
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
Paper
This paper establishes a behavioral theory of occupational selection that resolves the long-standing empirical ambiguity regarding the quality of the public sector workforce in environments characterized by corruption and moral friction. The framework incorporates self-control costs and temptation into a standard model of occupational choice, consistent with the utility framework of Gul and Pesendorfer (2001). We show that intrinsically motivated (honest) agents face a disproportionately higher psychological cost when resisting temptation, leading to a dual effect on selection: low-motivation types are attracted, while high-motivation types are severely deterred. To resolve the ambiguity that arises from these opposing forces, the analysis establishes three general principles that govern institutional selection, supported by analytical derivations and numerical robustness checks. First, we identify a critical institutional tipping point, λ*, which dictates the selection regime: below it, corruption leads to quality deterioration ("more but worse"); above it, it acts as a selective filter, improving quality ("less but better"). Second, we show that the selection outcome is fundamentally conditional on the societal correlation between ability and honesty. Third, the model offers a novel rationale for high public wages, demonstrating that large salaries mask or attenuate the selective power of corruption. Overall, our findings clarify the mechanisms governing workforce composition in morally frictional environments, contributing to the literature on occupational selection, public service motivation, and institutional design.
occupational selection, self-control, corruption, moral frictions, public sector quality.
D73; J45; D90; H83; K42.
Childcare and Civic Participation: Parental Age, Child Stage, and Voter Turnout
joint with Giorgio Bellettini and Carlotta Berti Ceroni
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
Paper
This paper examines how parenthood and parental age influence voter turnout using a comprehensive administrative panel that covers the universe of registered voters in Bologna across four municipal and national elections between 2004 and 2013. We link individual turnout records to detailed demographic, fiscal, and geospatial information, including the location and catchment areas of public childcare facilities and the distance to polling stations. This unique linkage allows us to identify parents, measure the age of their youngest child, and control for a rich set of individual and spatial characteristics. Linear probability models with individual and year fixed effects show no average turnout difference between parents and non-parents once permanent heterogeneity is absorbed. However, sizable turnout penalties emerge when children are very young: parents of infants (0–2 years) and preschoolers (3–5 years) vote three to five percentage points less than comparable non-parents. These penalties diminish by roughly 0.2 percentage points per additional year of parental age and disappear around age forty; parents of older children show no gap. The negative effect is concentrated among mothers, while fathers’ turnout remains unaffected. Robustness checks including neighborhood fixed effects, additional socioeconomic controls, and measures of residential proximity to childcare facilities confirm these results and show that access to schools plays no role in shaping turnout. Taken together, the findings suggest that intensive childcare demands, rather than the physical availability of childcare infrastructure, constrain political participation. They underscore the importance of life-cycle factors in models of voter behavior and highlight how delayed fertility and declining birth rates can skew democratic representation by reducing the political voice of younger families.
voter turnout, childcare, age, electoral participation, fixed effects.
D72; J13; J22; H75.
Bridging the Participation Gap? Public Goods as a Determinant of Electoral Engagement
joint with Giorgio Bellettini, Carlotta Berti Ceroni, Martín Gonzalez-Eiras, and Giovanni Prarolo
The Effect of Erasmus Programs on Voting
Ph.D. Thesis (2026), "Essays in Political Economy and Crime Economics"
Abstract
Chapters
This dissertation investigates how institutional incentives, behavioral frictions, and demographic factors shape individual decision-making in the domains of public employment and political participation. It comprises three chapters that combine theoretical modeling with empirical analysis to shed light on the interplay between corruption, crime salience, and family formation in influencing economic and political outcomes.

The first chapter develops a theoretical framework to study how corruption opportunities affect self-selection into the public sector. The model highlights a dual mechanism: corruption rents attract individuals with low intrinsic motivation, who are more prone to unethical behavior, while simultaneously deterring highly motivated candidates who anticipate self-control problems when faced with temptation. This selection pattern has important implications for the quality of the public workforce and the efficiency of state institutions.

The second chapter examines how exposure to crime-related news shapes voting behavior. Leveraging a unique dataset that links geolocated survey responses to media coverage around five Italian elections—two national and three municipal—the study shows that crime salience has heterogeneous electoral consequences. At the national level, only crimes attributed to immigrants significantly shift voter preferences, reducing support for the populist Five Star Movement and increasing support for right-wing parties emphasizing law and order. At the municipal level, by contrast, crimes committed by Italians lead to punishment of incumbents, whereas immigrant-related crimes induce higher abstention, especially among left-leaning voters. These findings underscore the role of information shocks in driving electoral realignments and in mediating the political impact of immigration.

The third chapter explores how childcare responsibilities interact with parental age to shape civic participation. Using rich administrative data from Bologna that match voter turnout records to household demographics and geospatial measures of proximity to schools, the analysis documents strong age-dependent effects of parenthood on political engagement. Parents of infants and preschoolers—particularly mothers—are significantly less likely to vote compared to childless adults, with turnout penalties concentrated in early adulthood and dissipating by the late thirties. These results highlight how time-intensive childcare duties and the timing of family formation condition life-cycle patterns of civic participation, with broader implications for political representation in aging societies.

Taken together, the three chapters show how corruption incentives, crime perceptions, and family dynamics intersect with institutional and demographic contexts to shape individual behavior. The dissertation contributes to our understanding of the microfoundations of governance, electoral outcomes, and democratic participation, offering insights relevant for the design of public policy.
1. Corruption, temptation, and self-selection in the public sector
2. Crime Perception and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Individual Data
3. Childcare and Civic Participation: Parental Age, Child Stage, and Voter Turnout
Master's Thesis (2018), "Effect of Breast and Colorectal Cancer on Earnings: Evidence from Italy"
Abstract
Using the Work History Italian Panel (WHIP) we estimate the causal effects of breast and colorectal cancer on earnings, on unemployment, and on the possibility to work part-time in the following three years after the cancer diagnosis. Since cancer patients differ from the rest of the population at socio-economic levels, we perform a propensity score matching to balance our observations. We analyse the effect on earnings throughout an OLS regression and on part-time and unemployment using a logistic regression. We observe that colorectal and breast cancer patients have different effects on earnings. A diagnosis of colorectal cancer appears to be more disabling, leading to a total reduction in earnings up to 10,000 € after three years. On the contrary, the negative effects of breast cancer are more concentrated in the short term and from the second year onwards these women are able to resume a normal working activity. This diversity is also supported by the results we achieved on unemployment and on part-time work.