research

My research agenda develops clean, testable theoretical frameworks—centered on incentives, information frictions, and selection—to clarify mechanisms before tracing their empirical implications. Empirically, I work with reproducible, end-to-end pipelines that often combine web scraping and NLP with geocoding and panel construction. My workflow typically relies on Python, Stata, and spatial tools such as QGIS (and, when appropriate, R).

Generative AI and Posted Labor Demand: Volume, Seniority and Timing
joint with Fabio Cerina and Simone Nobili
Paper
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
We study how the release of ChatGPT affected posted U.S. labor demand, using 368~million Lightcast job postings (2016--2025) and a usage-anchored measure of LLM exposure. While we find a negative and causal effect on the volume of postings in AI-exposed occupations, we find no post-release effect on their seniority composition. After November~2022, posting volume in top-quartile-exposed occupations contracts by 9~log points (approximately 8.6~percent) relative to less-exposed occupations within the same metropolitan market and month. The estimate survives an extensive battery of robustness checks and is concentrated in measured LLM usage rather than AI capability. In exposed occupations, junior postings fall considerably more than senior postings after the release, but the divergence predates ChatGPT: it opens in 2021--22, during the COVID recovery, and shows no break at the release. The differential that a simple pre/post comparison would attribute to ChatGPT is absorbed by predetermined remote-work exposure. Our results caution against reading exposure-based entry-level declines as evidence of AI-driven seniority-biased technological change.
generative AI; ChatGPT; labor demand; seniority; job postings; difference-in-differences.
J23; J24; 033; M51.
The Tipping Point of Temptation: Corruption and Selection into Public Service
Draft
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
Why can corruption attract dishonest workers into government yet also deter honest ones? We introduce self-control into a model of occupational choice. Corruption rents act as a short-run temptation: low-integrity agents give in and are attracted by the rent, high-integrity agents are untempted, and intermediate agents resist at a utility cost. This creates an interior “missing mass” in public-sector entry, distinct from the upper-tail deterrence generated by reputation and the smooth frontier generated by standard Roy sorting. The same geometry yields tipping loci for public-sector size and workforce integrity. In an independent-uniform benchmark they coincide at λ* = 1 + √2. For general regular joint distributions, both converge to this value as rents vanish, while their finite-rent corrections differ and depend on the local density of integrity and ability. The model also distinguishes deterrence technologies that are equivalent in expected monetary returns. Holding the commitment payoff from corruption fixed, removing rent opportunities weakly increases public-sector entry and weakly reduces both the mass and share of corrupt entrants relative to delayed sanctions, because temptation underweights delayed punishment. Under severe temptation, prevention therefore yields a double dividend: less corruption and greater public employment. Finally, the model implies a two-kink selection frontier with a slope-two middle segment, which identifies the temptation parameters when realized entry, incentivized integrity, and ability are jointly observed. Existing datasets do not yet combine these measurements; they are therefore used only to motivate the relevant heterogeneity and data requirements.
occupational selection; self-control and temptation; corruption; reputation and self-image; public sector labor markets; institutional design.
D73; J45; D90; H83.
Crime Perception and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Individual Data
joint with Giovanni Prarolo
Paper
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
This paper studies how exposure to geolocated crime-related news shapes individual voting behavior in Italian elections. Using a panel of non-relocating voters observed across multiple election rounds, we exploit within-individual variation in exposure to nearby crime news during the pre-election month, controlling for individual and district-by-election fixed effects. Aggregate exposure yields weak, unstable effects. Disaggregating by offender nationality reveals systematic patterns: immigrant-attributed crime news reduces support for parties with ambiguous immigration stances (e.g., Five Star Movement) and increases support for clear "law-and-order" parties, while Italian-attributed crime has negligible effects. Effects are stronger among high-skilled voters shifting from M5S and low-skilled voters abandoning Lega. In local elections, Italian crime punishes incumbents, while immigrant crime increases abstention. These asymmetric responses—absent in aggregate measures—indicate that crime salience operates primarily through identity-based framing rather than through generalized concerns about crime or security. The findings highlight how media attribution shapes electoral accountability.
crime; immigration; elections; news media; individual voting behavior.
D72; D83; K42; L82.
Eroding the Female Civic Advantage: Motherhood and Turnout over the Family Life Cycle
Draft
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
Among the childless, women turn out at higher rates than men; motherhood tem- porarily erodes this advantage. Using administrative records on the universe of registered voters in Bologna, Italy, over four elections (2004–2013), linked to household and income registers and to exact birth dates, we trace turnout in days and months around childbirth. A mother’s turnout falls by 9.7 percentage points in the first thirty days of her child’s life, while the father’s does not move; mothers whose child arrives in the month before an election vote 9.9 points less than mothers whose child arrives in the month after—two groups that differ at the polls mainly in whether the birth has already occurred—and the contrast reaches nearly 20 points within ten days of delivery. A regression discontinuity in the exact timing of birth relative to the election, robust to standard validity checks, locates the jump at the birth itself. The acute collapse is common to first and later births; what persists, two to three points through the child’s fifth year, is larger after first births. Within the same couple, followed across the birth, a young child widens the mother–father turnout gap by 0.7 points; the aggregate footprint is small, with a modest tilt toward lower-resource households. Part of the gender gap in turnout is made in the first weeks of parenthood.
parenthood; age; voter turnout; opportunity cost; administrative data.
D72; J13; J22.
Provision without Participation? Proximity to Local Public Goods and Voter Turnout
joint with Giorgio Bellettini, Carlotta Berti Ceroni, Martín Gonzalez-Eiras, and Giovanni Prarolo
Draft
Abstract
Keywords
JEL
Does proximity to locally provided public goods raise the political participation of the households that use them? We study Bologna, Italy, using administrative records on the universe of registered voters across four elections (2004–2013), linked to household registers, income, exact dates of birth, and a purpose-built, geocoded census of childcare facilities and other municipal amenities. Our baseline design follows one-child families as their child ages across service regimes, so that the distance relevant to the household switches—nursery to preschool to primary school—at a fixed address, and estimates separate distance slopes for local and national elections. Across this and two further identification strategies—a municipal-versus-state contrast and a regression discontinuity on the preschool enrollment-age cutoff—the turnout effect of proximity is a precise zero: the baseline detects slopes of one percentage point per 100 meters with 80 percent power, the parenthood penalty does not narrow where the nearest facility is closer (attenuations above a third of a point per 100 meters are ruled out), and the null holds in every parent- by-child gender cell and extends to seven categories of local public good. A significant effect appears in exactly one specification, which codes non-exposed households at zero distance and enters distance in logarithms; we show this is a coding-and-functional-form artifact that dissolves once either choice is corrected. We measure geographic proximity, not admission or attendance: the estimates bound the mobilizing effect of living near a facility in a rationed system, not of obtaining a place in it. The well-documented parent–non-parent participation gap does not appear to operate through physical proximity to local public goods.
voter turnout; public goods; childcare; gender; political participation; local elections.
D72; H41; J13; J16.
Costly Signaling and Populist Candidate Selection
State Capacity, Crime Reporting, and Local Development
joint with Gabriela Ertola Navajas
Political Compensation under Criminal Governance
joint with Alessio Carrozzo Magli and Paolo Vanin
Beyond the Tipping Point: Rent Feedback and Corruption Traps in Public-Sector Selection
Political Selection and Moral Frictions
Farina E., Rosso M., Dansero L., et al. (2023). Short-term effect of colorectal cancer on income. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 77:196–201.
Abstract
Introduction The ability to return to work after a cancer diagnosis is a key aspect of cancer survivorship and quality of life. Studies have reported a significant risk of income loss for cancer survivors; however, there is limited evidence of the Italian context.
Methods The Work Histories Italian Panel (WHIP)-Salute database was used to select a cohort of incident cases of colorectal cancer (CRC) among workers in the private sector, based on hospital discharges. A propensity score matching was used to find a balanced control group for several confounders. Ordinary least square and logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of a CRC diagnosis on annual income and the probability of switching from a full-time contract to a part-time one considering 3 years after the diagnosis.
Results Overall, we identified 925 CRC incident cases from 2006 until 2012. Our results confirm a statistically significant reduction in survivors’ income compared with controls. This reduction was greater in the first year and then tend to decrease, with an average income loss over 3 years of about €12 000. Stratified analyses by sex and position confirmed the overall trend while indicating a strong effect modification. Regarding the switching from full-time to part-time employment, the results were never significant.
Conclusion Income loss does not seem to be related to an increase in part-time contracts, but rather to survivors’ reduced work capacity following the invasive treatments. Further research is needed to investigate the complex dynamics behind this association.
Ph.D. Thesis (2026), "Essays in Political Economy and Crime Economics"
Abstract
Chapters
This dissertation studies how non-monetary frictions—such as temptation, information salience, and time constraints—shape individual behavior in contexts where formal institutions are otherwise well-functioning. Combining theoretical analysis with micro-level empirical evidence, the three chapters examine how these frictions affect selection into public employment and participation in democratic processes.

The first chapter develops a behavioral theory of occupational selection in the public sector. Introducing self-control costs into a standard model of career choice, the analysis shows that corruption generates a dual selection effect: while illicit rents attract low-motivation individuals, the psychological costs of resisting temptation deter highly motivated agents. The model identifies an institutional tipping point at which corruption switches from expanding public employment while degrading workforce quality to acting as a severe screening device that improves average quality but reduces participation. These results clarify why similar anti-corruption environments can produce sharply different selection outcomes across countries.

The second chapter examines how crime-related information affects individual voting behavior. Using geolocated data that link retrospective voting choices to local crime news coverage in Bologna across multiple national and municipal elections, the analysis exploits within-individual variation in exposure to nearby crime reports. The results show that aggregate crime salience has weak and unstable effects, while crime attributed to immigrants generates systematic electoral responses: voters shift away from parties with ambiguous positions on immigration toward parties emphasizing law and order. In local elections, immigrant-related crime increases abstention, whereas crimes committed by natives lead to punishment of incumbents. These findings highlight the role of identity-based framing in mediating the political impact of crime.

The third chapter studies how parenthood and parental age shape electoral participation. Using administrative data covering the universe of registered voters in Bologna, the analysis follows individuals over time as their family circumstances evolve. Once permanent individual heterogeneity is accounted for, parenthood is not associated with lower turnout on average. However, substantial life-cycle heterogeneity emerges: parents of infants and preschoolers—especially mothers—exhibit sizable turnout penalties at younger ages, which decline steadily with parental age and disappear by around age forty. These results indicate that periods of intensive childcare impose temporary opportunity costs on political participation.

Taken together, the three chapters show how behavioral frictions and life-cycle constraints can generate distortions in selection and participation even in settings with low formal barriers to entry and participation. By emphasizing micro-level mechanisms rather than institutional failures alone, the dissertation contributes to the understanding of public-sector composition, electoral behavior, and democratic representation.
1. The Tipping Point of Temptation: Occupational Selection and Integrity in the Public Sector
2. Crime Perception and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Individual Data
3. Parenthood, Age, and the Opportunity Cost of Voting: Evidence from Administrative Voter Records
Master's Thesis (2018), "Effect of Breast and Colorectal Cancer on Earnings: Evidence from Italy"
Abstract
Using the Work History Italian Panel (WHIP) we estimate the causal effects of breast and colorectal cancer on earnings, on unemployment, and on the possibility to work part-time in the following three years after the cancer diagnosis. Since cancer patients differ from the rest of the population at socio-economic levels, we perform a propensity score matching to balance our observations. We analyse the effect on earnings throughout an OLS regression and on part-time and unemployment using a logistic regression. We observe that colorectal and breast cancer patients have different effects on earnings. A diagnosis of colorectal cancer appears to be more disabling, leading to a total reduction in earnings up to 10,000 € after three years. On the contrary, the negative effects of breast cancer are more concentrated in the short term and from the second year onwards these women are able to resume a normal working activity. This diversity is also supported by the results we achieved on unemployment and on part-time work.
Bachelor's Thesis (2014), "The Dual Simplex Method"
Abstract
This thesis provides an introduction to linear programming and to the dual simplex method. After presenting the basic concepts of optimization and the standard form of a linear programming problem, the thesis introduces Jordan exchanges as an algebraic tool for transforming systems of linear equations and inequalities. These transformations are then used to describe the simplex method, both from an algebraic and a geometric perspective, with particular attention to feasibility, optimality, degeneracy, and pivoting rules.
The second part of the thesis focuses on duality in linear programming. Starting from the relationship between primal and dual linear systems, the thesis develops the dual formulation of a linear programming problem and discusses the main theoretical results, including weak duality, strong duality, and the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Finally, the dual simplex method is presented as a natural counterpart to the primal simplex method. While the primal simplex method preserves primal feasibility and progressively improves optimality, the dual simplex method starts from a dual-feasible table and restores primal feasibility through appropriate pivot operations. The thesis thus highlights the central role of duality in both the theoretical understanding and the algorithmic solution of linear programming problems.